Disrupted Aid, Displaced Lives: Unraveling the Impact of Refugee Aid Cuts

This project studies the effects of a dramatic drop in the level of aid for refugees. In July 2023, UNHCR and the World Food Programme (WFP) launched a new policy in Uganda that reduces unconditional cash and in-kind transfers for 1.5 million refugees. Based on a vulnerability score, the WFP implemented the following eligibility criteria: 14% of refugee households with the greatest needs will receive 60% of previous rations, and 82% of households will receive only 30%. For 5,400 households, we measure outcomes related to welfare, coping strategies, and social cohesion 8-12 months (Midline) and 20-22 months (Endline) after the start of the aid cuts. Since we know the exact criteria and set of variables that create the score, and thus treatment assignment, we can causally identify the effect of this aid cut based on selection on observables. As the UNHCR and other humanitarian organizations anticipate budgetary cuts in multiple refugee-hosting contexts, this research will inform policymakers on the effects of funding withdrawal as well as contribute to the large literature on cash transfers.