District-Level Acute Food Insecurity in Mozambique, 2017–2030: A Climate-, Conflict- and Livelihoods-Related Case Study for Global Food Systems Policy

Acute food insecurity remains a major challenge in Mozambique, where climate shocks, conflict, displacement and structural vulnerability affect livelihoods, food access and local food systems. This ecological time-trend study uses Mozambique as a district-level case study to examine how subnational monitoring can reveal persistent vulnerabilities in climate-exposed and conflict-affected settings. Publicly available district-level data were obtained from the Humanitarian Data Exchange/Integrated Food Security Phase Classification platform. Current situation observations from 2017 to 2025 were analysed, and the proportion of the population affected by acute food insecurity was modelled as a continuous outcome. Temporal patterns were assessed using mixed-effects regression and natural cubic splines, while district-level choropleth mapping and province-specific trajectories examined spatial heterogeneity. Between 2017 and 2025, acute food insecurity remained persistently high, with the estimated national average close to one third of the population. Northern provinces, particularly Nampula and Cabo Delgado, showed higher levels than several southern provinces. The overall temporal pattern suggested only modest decline, with projections indicating a possible reduction to approximately 26.6% by 2030, although uncertainty increased over the projected period. These findings show that national averages conceal important subnational vulnerabilities. Beyond Mozambique, the study highlights the value of district-level monitoring for countries where climate extremes, conflict, displacement, rural livelihood dependence and uneven territorial capacity interact to sustain food insecurity. Reducing acute food insecurity requires geographically targeted, climate-sensitive and conflict-responsive policies linking food assistance, social protection, agricultural resilience, market access and local monitoring.