Effects Climate Variability on Household Income Stability Among Smallholder Farmers in Rutsiro District of Western Province, Rwanda

Abstract This study examined the effects of climate variability on household income stability among smallholder farmers in Rwanda as its main objective. The research was conducted in Ruhango and Murunda Sectors of Rutsiro District, Western Province, Rwanda, between 2024 and 2026. It focused on rainfall variability, floods, temperature changes, landslides, and extreme weather events and household income instability as well. A mixed-method research design was used, combining descriptive and explanatory approaches. Quantitative data were collected from 297 smallholder farmers using structured questionnaires. Qualitative data were obtained through key informant interviews with local leaders, agricultural extension officers and community representatives. Field observations, document review, and Meteo Rwanda climate data supported the study. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation and regression analysis in SPSS version 28 and Excel. The findings showed that climate variability severely affects smallholder farmers. Rainfall had the highest mean score, followed by drought and temperature changes. Of the respondents, 60.3% were male and 39.7% female, with crop farming as the main income source. Household income was largely unstable, especially during droughts and extreme weather events. Statistical results showed a strong significant relationship between climate variability and income instability (R = 0.822, R² = 0. 675, p < 0.001) , meaning climate variability explains 67.5% of income instability. Farmers use different coping strategies such as adjusting planting dates, growing drought-resistant crops, and crop diversification, but these remain limited. The study concludes that climate variability has a strong negative effect on household income stability among smallholder farmers in study area. It recommends strengthening climate-smart agriculture, improving irrigation systems, soil conservation, and enhancing climate information services. Future research should examine the long-term impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in other districts.