Enhancing Policy Coherence for Sustainable Development in Zambia: An Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)-Based Approach to the Climate-Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Enhancing Policy Coherence for Sustainable Development in Zambia: An Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)-Based Approach to the Climate-Water-Energy-Food Nexus This research provides an in-depth analysis of the critical challenges posed by climate change to Zambia’s essential resource systems, particularly focusing on hydroelectric power generation, energy consumption, water management, agricultural productivity, and land use. Through the application of the Climate-Land-Energy-Water (CLEWs) modelling framework, this study examines the intricate interconnections within the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus, contextualising these challenges against the backdrop of rapid urbanisation, population growth, and the increasing unpredictability of climate patterns. The research directly supports the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, with a special emphasis on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as eradicating hunger (SDG 2), ensuring access to clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), promoting sustainable energy (SDG 7), and taking urgent climate action (SDG 13). The motivation for this study arises from the acute vulnerabilities Zambia faces due to climate change, with extreme droughts drastically depleting water reservoirs, reducing access to potable water, and triggering large-scale declines in agricultural output. These cascading effects have exposed significant gaps in policy coherence, particularly in addressing the intersecting dynamics of food security, energy reliability, and water scarcity. Against this background, this research seeks to bridge the policy divide by evaluating potential pathways that harmonise efforts across sectors, driving long-term resilience and sustainable growth. Key Policy Scenarios: The study rigorously evaluates three core scenarios that shape Zambia’s possible futures: Scenario Type Description Business-as-Usual (BAU) Baseline The BAU scenario projects a continuation of current trends, where hydroelectric power remains the primary energy source. However, this path faces rising emissions, increased operational costs, and diminishing returns due to the growing impacts of climate variability. No Adaptation (NA) Adaptation In this scenario, Zambia does not implement any further adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. As a result, hydropower reliability declines significantly, leading to a higher reliance on biomass and fossil fuels, exacerbating environmental degradation and pollution. Climate-Adjusted Infrastructure (CAI) Adaptation The CAI scenario envisions a proactive approach where infrastructure investments are designed to be climate-resilient. By diversifying the energy mix through the integration of solar PV, floating solar, wind, and geothermal technologies, this scenario outlines a future where Zambia reduces emissions, strengthens its energy security, and becomes more resilient to climate disruptions. IPCC Climate Projections: The research also explores the long-term implications of two prominent climate change pathways: Scenario Description IPCC B1 This pathway envisions a sustainable future where moderate emissions reductions and technological advances lead to more efficient water use, improved agricultural productivity, and enhanced climate resilience. The B1 scenario illustrates how adopting best practices can mitigate severe environmental stresses. IPCC A2 The A2 scenario represents a high-emissions future, where severe climate impacts—such as reduced precipitation, increased evaporation, and extended drought periods—place enormous pressure on Zambia’s water and food systems, demanding urgent and extensive adaptation efforts. Biofuel Integration and Agricultural Demand: The study further investigates the feasibility of biofuels within Zambia’s energy strategy. The Biofuel Adoption (BFA) scenario indicates a potential reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by displacing fossil fuels with biofuels derived from maize, cassava, and sugarcane. However, the Increased Agricultural Demand (IAD) scenario reveals the trade-offs, showing that intensified agricultural practices needed to support biofuel production would place a significant strain on Zambia’s water resources and land use, requiring careful management to avoid exacerbating food and water insecurity. Stakeholder Engagement and Policy Recommendations: This research is grounded in extensive stakeholder engagement, involving key institutions such as Zambia’s Ministry of Energy, the Centre for Energy, Environment, and Engineering Zambia, and the Green Hydrogen Association of Zambia. It incorporates inputs from a broad spectrum of stakeholders, including government officials, local farmers, utility operators, and international development partners. These interactions were instrumental in validating the CLEWs model and shaping the policy recommendations. Key recommendations include: Investment in Renewable Energy: Prioritising solar, wind, and geothermal technologies to diversify Zambia’s energy mix and reduce reliance on vulnerable hydropower resources. Improving Water Resource Management: Enhancing irrigation efficiency, promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, and strengthening water governance to secure Zambia’s agricultural output and mitigate water shortages. Sustainable Agricultural Practices: Promoting climate-smart agricultural practices that balance food production with the need to reduce water consumption and environmental impact. Gender-Sensitive Policy Integration: Ensuring that energy and agricultural policies are inclusive, addressing the unique challenges faced by women, particularly in rural areas, who are disproportionately affected by climate change and resource scarcity. Conclusion: This study concludes that achieving policy coherence across Zambia’s energy, water, and food systems is not only essential for climate resilience but also for ensuring long-term socio-economic stability. By adopting a diversified and sustainable energy mix, improving water management practices, and integrating more resilient agricultural approaches, Zambia can mitigate the adverse effects of climate change while advancing towards its Vision 2030 goals. Future research should focus on enhancing data collection methodologies, refining scenario modelling, and expanding sectoral analysis within the CLEWs framework to further support integrated policy-making that aligns with Zambia’s development objectives. Keywords: climate change, hydroelectric power, energy resilience, water management, sustainable agriculture, Zambia, CLEWs framework, WEF nexus, policy coherence, sustainable development. For further insights, please refer to the following attachments: the full dissertation/report, the CLEWs method framework, the CLEWs simplified reference diagram, and the study's stakeholder engagement approach. For additional information or inquiries, the author, Kumbuso Joshua Nyoni, can be reached via LinkedIn at Kumbuso Joshua Nyoni.