aminemanai2003/tunisia-electricity-outage-risk
Domaine:
socioeconomicenvironment and energyCréateur:
ami
Hôte:
Survey-weighted actuarial study of electricity-interruption losses, conditional provisions and risk scenarios for Tunisian businesses.
# Tunisia Electricity-Interruption Risk
Independent actuarial study on self-reported economic losses associated with electricity interruptions for formal Tunisian businesses.
Site: aminemanai2003.github.io
## Project question
Can electricity-interruption losses for formal Tunisian businesses be modelled actuarially?
The project uses the World Bank Enterprise Survey as the primary evidence base and keeps the public language precise:
- outcome: self-reported economic loss associated with electricity interruptions;
- population: eligible formal private non-agricultural establishments with at least five employees;
- model: conditional actuarial chain, not a utility fault or legal-liability model;
- output: illustrative economic-loss and payout scenarios, not a commercial premium.
## Version 1 scope
The six-week core is intentionally disciplined:
- per-wave survey-weighted descriptive evidence;
- conditional model chain: `P(outage) * P(loss > 0 | outage) * E(loss ratio | loss > 0, outage)`;
- explicit payout scenario mapping with deductible, limit, coinsurance and claim-conversion sensitivity;
- conditional 2026-2030 loss projections with central, adverse and severe planning provisions;
- Quarto report and static project site;
- optional AI challenger only after sample-size and calibration gates.
Shiny, firm-level climate predictors, claim pricing, formal insurance reserving and capital modelling are deferred until the evidence supports them.
## Quick start
Install R, Quarto and the required packages, then run:
```r
renv::restore()
targets::tar_make()
```
Raw WBES microdata must be downloaded manually from the World Bank Microdata Library and placed under `data/raw/`. Restricted raw data must never be committed.
## Current implementation status
The repository contains the reproducible architecture, data contracts, modelling functions, payout logic, report/site shells, tests, real public-safe aggregate artifacts, CI …