arwanasir/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecast A forecasting and policy-analysis project focused on estimating short-term financial inclusion trends in Ethiopia. The repository combines exploratory analysis, event impact modeling, and forecasting utilities to study how access and usage indicators may evolve over time. ## Overview This project was created to analyze financial inclusion patterns in Ethiopia and to produce forward-looking estimates for upcoming periods. The work is structured as a reusable analysis pipeline rather than a single notebook dump, with dedicated modules for loading data, modeling event impacts, and generating forecasts. The central goals are to: - study historical financial inclusion indicators - enrich the analysis with event or policy context - estimate near-term future values for access and usage metrics - package results in a form suitable for reporting and presentation ## Repository Structure ```text ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── dashboard/ # Presentation layer scaffold ├── data/ # Raw and processed datasets ├── notebooks/ # EDA and analysis workflow ├── src/ │ ├── data_loader.py # Data ingestion helpers │ ├── analysis_tools.py # Reusable analysis utilities │ ├── impact_modeling.py # Event-impact or intervention modeling │ └── forecasting.py # Forecasting logic ├── data_enrichment_log.md # Notes on external enrichment work └── requirements.txt # Python dependencies ``` ## Core Components - `src/data_loader.py`: dataset loading and preparation - `src/analysis_tools.py`: shared analysis helpers - `src/impact_modeling.py`: logic for evaluating event or intervention effects - `src/forecasting.py`: forecasting routines for inclusion metrics - `notebooks/`: step-by-step exploratory and modeling work - `dashboard/`: scaffold for presenting results in an interactive format ## Tech Stack - Python - Pandas and NumPy - notebook-based exploratory an …