lifrancois/benin-least-cost-electrification

Demand estimation and least-cost electrification modelling for Benin (VIDA assessment) # Least-Cost Electrification Modelling – Benin ### VIDA Technical Assessment Submission **Author:** François Li **Date:** December 2025 This repository contains my full submission for the VIDA technical assessment, including demand estimation and least-cost electrification modelling for all settlements in Benin. The analysis integrates demographic, spatial and techno-economic inputs to assign the least-cost electrification technology — Grid extension, Solar Mini-Grid, or Solar Home System (SHS) — under two scenarios. --- ## 1. Problem Overview The objective of this assignment is to: 1. **Estimate residential electricity demand** for each settlement over a 15-year planning horizon 2. **Incorporate demand growth**, additional institutional loads (schools & health centers) 3. **Calculate discounted annual energy demand** for use in LCOE modelling 4. **Compute the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)** for three technologies 5. **Assign the least-cost option** to each settlement 6. **Export results** for mapping and visual comparison Two policy scenarios were modelled to observe shifts in technology selection. --- ## 2. Scenarios ### **Scenario 1 – Baseline** - Standard techno-economic assumptions - No subsidies or cost reductions applied ### **Scenario 2 – Policy Support** A hypothetical policy bundle is applied: - **30% subsidy** on mini-grid CAPEX (generation + storage + LV) - **20% reduction** in MV line extension cost - SHS unchanged The same spatial adjustment rules (population density + distance to grid) are applied in both scenarios. --- ## 3. Repository Contents ### ⚠️ **Note on Output Data** The output GeoJSON files for Scenario 1 and 2 are **not included** in this repository due to GitHub file size restrictions. They can be fully **regenerated** by running the notebook `benin_model.ipynb`. These files were used to produce the QGIS maps included in the presentation. --- ## 4. Running the Analysis ### **Install dependencies** ```bash pip inst …