TiaanViviers/returns_to_edu_sa

Econometric Analysis on returns to education in South Africa # Returns to Education in South Africa Survey-weighted statistical analysis of how education is associated with employment and wages in South Africa using `QLFS 2023` and `LMDSA 2023`. This repository is structured as a portfolio-quality econometrics project: it includes the data-cleaning pipeline, exploratory analysis, model estimation scripts, report-ready outputs, and a fully rendered HTML report. ## Research question How strongly is education associated with labour-market outcomes in South Africa, and do returns appear to rise smoothly with schooling or cluster around credential thresholds such as matric and tertiary qualifications? ## Main findings - Employment rises sharply at key credentials. Among adults aged `25-64`, the weighted employment rate increases from `41.7%` for incomplete secondary education to `53.4%` for matric, `64.3%` for certificate/diploma, and `80.9%` for degree/postgraduate education. - Wages are even more non-linear. In the trimmed LMDSA employee sample, weighted median monthly wages rise from `R3,500` for incomplete secondary education to `R5,500` for matric, `R16,000` for certificate/diploma, and `R25,000` for degree/postgraduate education. - The adjusted wage gradient remains large after controls. In the preferred survey-weighted log-wage model, relative to incomplete secondary education, matric is associated with a `46.4%` wage premium, certificate/diploma with `130.3%`, and degree/postgraduate education with `237.5%`. - Education is also strongly associated with employment access. In the preferred employment model, matric is associated with an `11.1` percentage-point higher employment probability, certificate/diploma with `21.3` points, and degree/postgraduate education with `36.2` points. ## Data The analysis combines two Statistics South Africa datasets from `2023`: - `QLFS 2023` for employment outcomes. - `LMDSA 2023` for wage outcomes. Main analytical samples: - `QLFS 2023 cleaned`: `264,495` rows. - `QLFS employment …