uchechukwueze/Fiscal-Drivers-of-Africa-s-Sovereign-Debt-Crisis

The analysis of the global fiscal dataset reveals a critical trend: emerging economies like Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa, are facing widening fiscal deficits driven by expenditure outpacing revenue growth. # Fiscal Drivers of-Africa's Sovereign Debt Crisis This repository presents an analysis of a global fiscal dataset highlighting a critical macro-fiscal trend: emerging economies such as Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa are experiencing widening fiscal deficits as expenditure growth consistently outpaces revenue mobilization. Using historical data, the analysis identifies the key drivers of fiscal instability, detects anomaly periods associated with major economic shocks, and projects a continued deepening of Nigeria’s fiscal deficit through 2027 under a business-as-usual scenario, absent meaningful structural reforms. ## Table of Contents - Abstract - Problem Statement - Project Objectives - Data Wrangling - Analysis of Africa Fiscal Indicators - Nigeria as Case Study - Correlation Analysis: Fiscal Indicators - Trend Analysis - Anomaly Detection and Prediction - Policy Simulation: Can We Close This Fiscal Gap by 2030? - Conclusion - Recommendation ### Abstract In this project, I analyzed the fiscal and macroeconomic performance of many African economies using data compiled from various Central Banks and Statistical agencies of respective countries. In this project, I worked, cleaned, and explored 23,784 rows of records with 9 columns, including fiscal variables such as Budget Balance, Capital and Health Expenditure, GDP, Inflation, Unemployment, Government Debt, and Population metrics. I applied AI-driven anomaly detection and predictive modelling to find insights, uncover instability risks, and forecast economic trends through 2028. I found that the growth of the African economies in 2025 is 3.9%. From the data, the average growth rate of the 14 economies in the dataset between 2000 and 2023 ranges from 8.54 of Ethiopia to 2.32% of South Africa. Unemployment, food inflation, and deficit remain major issues facing African countries. I narrowed this study down to Nigeria. I found that between 2024 and 2025 alone, debt service rose by 73%, from ₦8.27tn to ₦14 …