Hybrid Solar PV-Battery System Modelling for Rural Electrification in Mada Community, Nigeria

Mada Community, an unelectrified farming locality in Isara-Remo, Ogun State, Nigeria, has no grid connection and no published, disaggregated electricity demand baseline. This study addresses that gap by developing a validated model of a standalone hybrid solar photovoltaic and battery storage system for the community, using field-surveyed demand data and site-specific solar resource data. A bottom-up field survey of 200 buildings, sampled using the Taro Yamane formula, produced an hourly community demand profile, cross-validated against 8,760-hour NASA POWER solar resource data. Two system configurations, one sized from the survey data and one benchmarked against the published, operating Gbamu-Gbamu mini-grid, were simulated hour by hour under lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and valve-regulated lead-acid (VRLA) battery chemistries. Only the Gbamu-Gbamu-benchmarked configuration under LFP met the study's 5% Loss of Power Supply Probability (LPSP) target, achieving 4.48% against a Renewable Energy Fraction of 95.52%, at a Levelised Cost of Energy of approximately ₦289/kWh, the lowest of the four scenarios evaluated. The performance and cost gap between chemistries was found to be driven principally by depth of discharge and battery replacement frequency. Three of the four modelled configurations returned a lower lifecycle cost than the community's current energy expenditure. An 85 kWp photovoltaic array paired with a 768.6 kWh LFP battery bank is recommended for Mada Community.