Long-term Energy Demand Projection for Ethiopian Agricultural Sector in MAED Tool

Agriculture is central to Ethiopia’s economy, contributing 32% of GDP in 2023 while consuming 6.77 PJ of energy. With rising climate concerns and limited financial resources, projecting long-term energy demand is vital for sustainable modernization. Using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), this study examines Ethiopia’s agricultural energy demand to 2053 under three scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Intensive Mechanization (IM), and Solar-Integrated Agri-Power Systems (SIAPS). Results show demand rising to 54.5 PJ under BAU, 46.9 PJ under IM, and 26.3 PJ under SIAPS. While mechanization enhances productivity, it significantly increases fossil fuel reliance, contributing 734,820 tonnes of CO₂ emissions (4–5% of national totals). In contrast, SIAPS reduces demand by half compared to BAU and achieves near-zero emissions through renewable-powered irrigation and electrification. The findings underscore that renewable-powered mechanization offers the most sustainable pathway, simultaneously improving productivity and mitigating emissions. Policy recommendations emphasize prioritizing solar-integrated systems to align agricultural modernization with Ethiopia’s energy and climate goals.