Forecasting Final Energy Demand for Industry Sector in Rwanda Using Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED).

This study presents a comprehensive forecast of final energy demand for Rwanda’s industry sector using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Focusing on the manufacturing sub-sector expected to drive industrial growth and contribute 33% of GDP by 2050 three development scenarios were evaluated: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Vision 2050, and Efficiency (Measures). Each scenario projected energy demand based on varying GDP growth rates and efficiency assumptions, revealing that the Efficiency scenario could reduce energy demand by 29% compared to the Vision scenario by 2050. Results show that energy demand will be dominated by fossil and traditional fuels, though shifting to more efficient fuels like electricity and modern biomass offers significant savings and policy opportunities. The findings offer critical insights for national energy planning and underscore the importance of fuel-switching strategies in meeting Rwanda’s development and climate goals.