MAED-Based Analysis of Rural Household Cooking Energy Demand in Ethiopia

Abstract

Rural households in Ethiopia continue to rely predominantly on traditional biomass fuels for cooking, resulting in environmental degradation, deforestation, and severe health impacts from indoor air pollution. Although Ethiopia has committed to clean energy and climate-resilient development, long-term, data-driven planning for household cooking energy demand remains limited. This study applies the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to assess future rural household cooking energy demand under alternative policy and development scenarios.

Using the Ethiopian Reference Energy System, three scenarios were developed: a baseline scenario reflecting current trends dominated by traditional biomass use, a moderate transition scenario with partial adoption of improved cookstoves, and a clean cooking transition scenario emphasizing Tier 3 and above cooking technologies, electrification, and modern biomass fuels. These scenarios evaluate the effects of population growth, technology adoption, and fuel switching on energy demand and biomass dependence.

The results show that under the baseline scenario, rural cooking energy demand increases significantly, with traditional biomass consumption nearly doubling by 2053. In contrast, the clean cooking transition scenario demonstrates a deep structural shift, reducing total cooking energy demand by more than 62.4 % despite population growth and by 81.2 % carbon emission.  This transition also delivers compounded carbon emission reductions and substantial health and gender benefits. The study concludes that MAED-based modeling provides a robust foundation for evidence-based clean cooking and electrification planning in Ethiopia.