Modelling Clean Cooking Energy Demand in Urban Household in Nigeria Using MAED

This study models clean cooking energy demand in urban Nigeria using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED). Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that 62% of households rely on firewood for cooking, 20% use kerosene, 10.5% use liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), 4% use charcoal, 3% use improved biomass, and only 1% depend on electricity. This heavy reliance on traditional fuels contributes to deforestation, indoor air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and health problems. The research examines future energy demand and fuel mix under Business-as-Usual (BAU) and policy scenarios, focusing on the impact of implementing the National Clean Cooking Policy (NCCP-2024) by 2040 and 2050. Results indicate that NCCP implementation could reduce final cooking energy demand by 63% in 2040 and 55% in 2050. The use of traditional fuels declines by nearly 80%, while the adoption of LPG, electricity, and modern biomass increases, with modern biomass reaching up to 13% penetration. The findings emphasize the need to strengthen LPG distribution networks, promote modern biomass technologies, and incentivize electric cooking to achieve 100% clean cooking access in urban areas. Overall, the MAED-based analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to guide investments, monitor progress, and ensure a sustainable transition toward clean cooking in Nigeria’s urban sector by 2050.