Mathematical model of chikungunya dynamics in Sudan, Red Sea State

Background & objectives: Chikungunya is a re-emerging infectious disease. It is spreading rapidly in the eastern states of Sudan. Leading a large outbreak during 2018-2019. Chikungunya virus is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which are endemic in Sudan. Despite its public health impact, no specific antiviral drugs are available. This Study was conducted to formulate the Mathematical model of Chikungunya virus spread between the vector and human, to understand the pattern of disease dynamics. Methods: In this study, we formed a model for the dynamics of Chikungunya virus propagation in human beings, as well as examining the qualitative mosquito population’s development. Furthermore, the fundamental reproduction number serves as the biological threshold criterion for this disease. Hence, using the next-generation matrix method to find basic reproduction numbers. Results: The model shows the conditions under which the disease persists or dies out, based on the value of reproduction number. Stability analysis shows that the disease-free equilibrium is stable when reproduction number less than one and unstable when reproduction number greater than one. Numerical simulations illustrate the transmission patterns and confirm the analytical findings using real epidemiological data. Interpretation & conclusion: The patterns revealed by the analytical and numerical results shed light on the spread of the disease in the Red Sea State. Some significant emphases and insights are offered in light of the results, which may aid in lowering the number of chikungunya infection cases.