Migration Decision Making and Heterogeneities, Infrastructures and Trajectories of African Migrations

This report examines migrant decision-making processes among African populations through a comparative, multi-sited qualitative study conducted in Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and diasporas in Italy and the UK. Drawing on 179 semi-structured interviews and 18 longitudinal digital diaries collected between 2023 and 2024, it reveals migration aspirations, planning and trajectories as iterative and contextually contingent, rather than linear or predetermined. Analysis demonstrates significant heterogeneity in decision-making stages - from non-migration and aspiration to preparation, transit, settlement, and return - with participants frequently oscillating between these positions amid evolving personal circumstances, social networks and structural constraints. Legal statuses varied widely, encompassing internal migrants, regional movers, refugees, long-term European residents, returnees, and users of regular/irregular pathways. Coding of transcripts employed a collaborative, multi-researcher approach across country teams, yielding node memos that facilitated cross-national thematic synthesis and minimized bias through generous, overlapping application at the paragraph level. Digital diaries captured temporal dynamics over six months, highlighting shifts in strategies influenced by uncertainty, waiting, and real-time information flows via WhatsApp and social media. Findings disrupt traditional push-pull models by foregrounding non-linear temporalities and the interplay of formal (e.g., NGOs, agencies) and informal infrastructures (e.g., kin, brokers, peers). This underscores the need for migration policies attuned to diverse African-European corridors, emphasizing empirical complexity over simplified dichotomies.