Monitoring commercial and smallholder production inequalities during South Africa's lockdown using remotely sensed data

Abstract South Africa's dualistic agricultural sector consists of many smallholders that operate adjacent to dominant commercial producers. While the smallholder sector contributes to food security, households depend primarily on market food consumption. Poverty reduction is constrained when smallholders have limited access to markets, technology, or cheap capital. We collate remotely sensed data from the South African National Land Cover map and moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer to monitor land use changes as the country entered the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) lockdown. Production growth sustained aggregate food security, but hunger rose in the poorest households. This inequality in food security is also reflected in growing inequalities in production. Commercially cultivated land areas grew significantly, with more modest gains in smallholder areas. Commercial farmers were better positioned to expand capital in a low interest rate environment during the COVID‐19 crisis. Without using technology and capital to adapt, smallholders can fall further behind during future crises and growth episodes.