Abstract Background Tsetse flies ( Glossina spp.), the vectors of human African trypanosomiasis, are strongly constrained by temperature and moisture conditions. Climate change may therefore alter the broad climatic envelope within which Glossina populations can persist across Africa. Methods We applied an ensemble species distribution modelling framework with repeated spatial block cross-validation to estimate present-day and near-future climatic suitability for Glossina spp. across Africa. Occurrence records were obtained from GBIF and modelled using WorldClim bioclimatic variables. To address ecological heterogeneity within the genus, we additionally reprocessed occurrence records at the species level to assess whether species-specific or species-group models were feasible. Because no species or species group retained sufficient spatially independent records after filtering and spatial thinning, the analysis was interpreted as a continental climatic-envelope model rather than as species-specific realized distribution modelling. Projections were generated for 2021–2040 under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Results Present-day climatic suitability was concentrated mainly in Central and East Africa. Temperature variability, cold-season temperature and seasonal precipitation were the most influential climatic predictors. Only GLM and RF met the predefined performance criteria and contributed to the final ensemble. Near-future projections indicated substantial contraction and spatial reorganization of climatically suitable areas under both scenarios. Using the main maxSS threshold, total suitable area declined by approximately 60% under SSP1-2.6 and 62% under SSP5-8.5. This contraction was consistent across alternative thresholds, indicating that the projected decline was not dependent on a single binary threshold. These projected changes should be interpreted within the adopted modelling framework, including the selected climate model (BCC-CSM2-MR), the retained GLM–RF ensemble and the predefined background/pseudo-absence sampling design. Conclusions Near-future climate change is projected to substantially reduce and reorganize the broad climatic envelope for Glossina spp. across Africa. The estimated magnitude of contraction should be interpreted within the adopted modelling framework rather than as a universally applicable prediction. These continent-scale projections should not be interpreted as species-specific distributions or direct transmission-risk maps, but they provide a climatic baseline for climate-aware vector surveillance and future species-specific modelling.