The uncertainty–risk–efficiency pathway: Evidence from supply chains operating amid the Sudan conflict

Background: Environmental uncertainty, characterised by rapid changes in macroeconomic policies, geopolitical instability, and sectoral volatility, has become a major driver of supply chain risk. Objectives: This study examines the relationships among environmental uncertainty, supply chain risk, supply chain security, and supply chain efficiency. Growing environmental unpredictability compels organisations to strengthen security measures and build resilient supply networks. Furthermore, the study investigates how firms allocate resources to mitigate risks and enhance security capabilities to reduce disruptions and maintain operational continuity during periods of instability. Method: A quantitative cross-sectional research design was employed. Data were collected through a self-administered survey from 190 logistics, supply chain, and operations management professionals working in commercial companies in Sudan. The data were analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). Results: The results indicate that environmental uncertainty does not directly affect supply chain efficiency. However, environmental uncertainty was found to have a significant positive relationship with both supply chain risk and supply chain security. In addition, supply chain risk and supply chain security positively mediate the relationship between environmental uncertainty and supply chain efficiency. Conclusion: It is crucial that no organisation can adapt to uncertainty in its environment directly; they need to create integrated risk management and security systems that act as protective mechanisms for supply chain efficiency. Contribution: Organisations should strengthen resilience through flexible sourcing strategies, strategic inventory management, operational decentralisation, and predefined emergency response protocols to ensure continuity during disruptions.