Trust–Risk Independence and the Benefit Pathway to Nuclear Energy Acceptance: Evidence from Kenya's Pre-Project Phase

Kenya plans to introduce nuclear power by 2034, yet pre-project public acceptance is unknown. We provide the first quantitative analysis of institutional trust and nuclear energy acceptance in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a cross-sectional survey of 345 adults across 32 counties, we apply structural equation modelling with bootstrap indirect effects to test an Institutional Trust-Mediated Acceptance Model.Acceptance was moderate (M = 3.41/5), institutional trust near the midpoint (M = 2.98/5), and perceived risk high (M = 4.23/5). Nuclear knowledge (β = 0.59) and social influence (β = 0.44) were positively associated with trust; proximity to proposed sites was negatively associated (β = –0.14). Trust was strongly associated with perceived benefit (β = 0.83) but not perceived risk (β = 0.04, p > 0.05), a pattern we term trust-risk independence. Perceived benefit showed the strongest association with acceptance (β = 0.65), followed by direct trust (β = 0.34). The model explained 91.4% of acceptance variance but only 0.3% of risk variance. Indirect effects of knowledge, social influence, and proximity operated through trust and benefit (totals: 0.95, 0.61, and –0.34). Fairness was excluded due to poor reliability.In a nuclear newcomer context, institutional trust is associated with acceptance primarily through benefit expectations rather than risk reduction. Proximity is associated with lower acceptance through lower trust, not heightened risk. Policy should prioritize benefit sharing and transparent host-community engagement over risk-focused communication. Limitations include non-representative sampling and cross-sectional design. Findings require validation using nationally representative data.