Battery Mineral Value Chains in Africa: Modelling Physical Material Flows and Estimating Processing Costs and Prices

This article documents the methodology underpinning modelling of supply chain steps and mineral economics used to assess critical mineral value chains in the context of battery supply chains in Africa. The first step involves converting mine-level production data for six minerals (cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese, and nickel) into stage-specific output volumes, using mineral-specific processing stage sequences derived from literature reviews, and stage-level material, water, fuel, and electricity intensities drawn from the literature. The second step establishes 2022 baseline cost estimates for each stage from heterogeneous commercial databases and company feasibility reports, fills gaps in advanced-stage cost data using a proxy profit margin estimation, projects costs forward to 2040 using a compound annual adjustment integrating inflation, and projects stage-specific commodity prices to 2040 using a Compound Annual Growth Rate approach grounded in published market analysis. Together, these methods provide the physical and financial backbone of an integrated modelling platform designed to evaluate country opportunities, and policy trade-offs along battery mineral supply chains in Africa.