Clean Cooking Pathways for Kenya: Energy Demand and Emissions under Alternative Policy Scenarios Using MAED

This study presents long-term, scenario-based projections of Kenya’s household cooking energy demand through 2050, evaluating the impact of policy interventions and technology adoption on energy use, fuel mix, and emissions. Using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), three scenarios, Business-as-Usual (BAU), Stated Policy (STEP), and Net Zero (NZE), were assessed to explore pathways toward a clean cooking transition. Key findings indicate that targeted adoption of electricity and modern biomass can substantially reduce household energy demand and associated PM₂.₅ and CO emissions, improving public health outcomes. Urban households are poised for rapid electrification, whereas rural communities will require hybrid solutions and improved biomass access to ensure equitable transitions. The study highlights that incremental measures are insufficient: only deep decarbonization pathways can achieve the reductions necessary to meet Kenya’s health and climate targets. Policy recommendations include expanding electricity access, strengthening modern biomass distribution, providing financial incentives and subsidies for clean cooking technologies, and implementing awareness programs to overcome cultural and behavioral barriers. Coordinated infrastructure and regulatory support will be critical to achieving sustainable, health-conscious household energy systems nationwide.