alemayehutseganew/ethiopia-finance-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting This repository hosts the Week 10 challenge for the 10 Academy Artificial Intelligence Mastery program. The goal is to design an end-to-end forecasting system that explains and projects Ethiopia's financial inclusion trajectory across two World Bank Global Findex pillars: 1. **Access (Account Ownership Rate)** – Share of adults (15+) with a financial institution or mobile-money account. 2. **Usage (Digital Payment Adoption)** – Share of adults who made or received a digital payment in the past 12 months. ## Project Goals - Consolidate and enrich the unified financial inclusion dataset for Ethiopia. - Perform exploratory analysis to surface inclusion drivers, gaps, and risks. - Quantify the impacts of policies, market entries, and infrastructure shocks on indicators. - Produce forecasts for Access and Usage covering 2025-2027 under multiple scenarios. - Deliver an interactive Streamlit dashboard for stakeholders to explore data, events, and projections. ## Implementation Overview - **Task 1 – Data Exploration & Enrichment:** Curated additional macro-financial indicators and event signals logged in data_enrichment_log.md; merged them with the base dataset through staging pipelines inside notebooks/01_data_enrichment.ipynb. - **Task 2 – Exploratory Data Analysis:** Profiled temporal trends, regional disparities, and correlation structures using reusable plotting helpers from src/event_effects.py; key visuals live in notebooks/02_eda.ipynb and exports under reports/figures. - **Task 3 – Event Impact Modeling:** Quantified structural breaks and lagged elasticities with intervention regression blocks in notebooks/03_event_impact_modeling.ipynb, supported by helper routines in src/__init__.py. - **Task 4 – Forecasting:** Produced baseline and scenario forecasts for access and usage metrics using gradient boosted regressors in notebooks/04_forecasting.ipynb and serialized artifacts to models. - **Dashboard Delivery:** Published …