Investment and Technology Pathways for Universal Electricity Access in Kogi State and the FCT in Nigeria By 2035

Achieving universal access to electricity remains a central goal of Nigeria’s energy transition agenda. This study, titled “Investment and Technology Pathways for Universal Electricity Access in Kogi State and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) by 2035,” employs the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to explore least-cost electrification strategies and investment requirements toward this goal. Using geospatial, demographic, and techno-economic data, the research models different electrification scenarios combining grid extension, mini-grids, and standalone renewable systems. The analysis evaluates the spatial distribution of unelectrified communities, electricity demand projections, and renewable resource potentials particularly solar and small hydropower across both regions. Results are expected to identify the most cost-effective technology mix and provide an estimate of total and disaggregated investment needs for achieving full electricity access by 2035. The study also examines enabling policy, institutional, and financing frameworks, drawing on Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) and National Electrification Strategy to assess alignment with national targets. The findings will support decision-makers in prioritizing investment corridors, strengthening decentralized renewable energy development, and ensuring equitable energy access between rural and urban areas. Ultimately, two scenarios where modelled, the least cost approach high demand (scenario -1) and the forced grid approach (scenario -2). The total investment required to electrify Kogi state and the FCT between 2030 and 2035 is 55329.62 million USD, total population to be electrified is 8285380 million, with about 1194.94 MW installed capacity and 2535792 new connections. Scenario -2 requires 668.04 million USD in investment to install 73.27MW and about 399860 new connections. this research demonstrates how spatial electrification modelling tools like OnSSET can guide evidence-based planning for sustainable energy expansion. The proposed investment and technology pathways offer a replicable framework for other Nigerian states and contribute to the realization of affordable, reliable, and sustainable electricity for all by 2035 in line with national and global energy goals.