Analyse the electrification pathways for Nigeria to Achieve Universal Access by 2040

This study analyzes two demand scenarios towards achieving 100% electrification in Nigeria by 2040 under the framework of the Nigerian Electricity Act, 2023. In the higher demand scenario, the total investment cost is estimated at 49.14 billion USD, with 38.59 million new connections established between 2022 and 2040. The ratio of mini-grid connections between urban and rural areas is projected to be 1:9, and a total additional capacity of 34,469.57 MW is expected to be added during this period. Conversely, in the lower demand scenario, the total investment cost is significantly reduced to 4.41 billion USD, while still achieving 100% electrification with 38.59 million new connections by 2040. The urban-to-rural mini-grid connection ratio remains consistent at 1:9. However, the total additional capacity required is much lower, at 5,771.42 MW, with capacity additions occurring primarily between 2030 and 2040. This comparison shows the significant difference in investment costs and capacity needs depending on each demand scenario, emphasizing the need for strategic planning and resource optimization to achieve universal electrification in Nigeria.